[Salon] Russia Promises to Double Down if Ukraine Does Not Take the Offer on the Table

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/russia-promises-to-double-down-if?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1225061&post_id=163754245&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=210kv&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Russia Promises to Double Down if Ukraine Does Not Take the Offer on the Table

Larry C Johnson  5/16/25

The meeting in Istanbul on Friday, 16 May, between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, was simply a reminder to Ukraine and NATO that the terms for ending the war, which President Putin laid out in his 14 June 2024 speech to the senior officials of the Russian Foreign Ministry, remain intact… at least for now. In case you missed it, here they are:

Territorial Concessions: Ukraine must withdraw its forces from the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, including areas not currently under Russian control.

NATO Neutrality: Ukraine must officially abandon its aspirations to join NATO and adopt a neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status.

Sanctions Relief: All Western sanctions against Russia must be lifted as part of the peace agreement.

Demilitarization and ‘Denazification’: Future negotiations must include provisions for the demilitarization and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, concepts previously discussed during the 2022 Istanbul talks.

Protection of Russian-Speaking Citizens: Ukraine must ensure the rights and freedoms of Russian-speaking citizens within its territory.

The Russian delegation reportedly told the Ukrainians that Ukrainian troops must vacate the four oblasts that are now part of the Russian Federation — i.e., Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — before there can be any discussion of a possible ceasefire. If Ukraine does not take the deal now, the next Russian offer will be more onerous. According to the head of RT, Margarita Simonyon, the Russians informed their Ukrainian counterparts that the next demand will be that Ukraine vacate eight oblasts. This was not a bluff. The Russians were channeling their inner Walter Brennan, noted for his iconic catch-phrase from the 1960s TV show, The Guns of Will Sonnet… “No brag, just fact.”

Russia is content to continue the war of attrition because the real threat is not Ukraine, it is the United States and its NATO allies. Ukraine is a pawn of the West, and the Russian leaders understand that.

Speaking of attrition, the Russians and Ukrainians are exchanging bodies of dead soldiers at a rate of 27 to 1, i.e. 27 Ukrainians for one Russian soldier. That is the definition of attrition.

Western hopes to isolate Russia and compel it to accept an unconditional ceasefire were dashed against the rocks of Russia’s firm resolve in Istanbul. Zelensky and his European pals are howling with outrage, but Russia does not care.

I discussed the negotiations, as well as developments on the Palestinian/Israeli front, with Nima and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson in the morning, and with Judge Napolitano and Ray McGovern in the afternoon: